OPERATION “SWORD-OF-DUBYA”

a variant for Somalia, by that game’s designer, Brian Train

At the end of 2001, it was conventional wisdom that Somalia would be next on the target list in the continuing US-led “War on Terrorism.” For some time, it was rumoured that the Al-Qaeda organization has had roots in Somalia and Yemen. Al-Qaeda members allegedly helped to train Somali militiamen who participated in the 1993 battle in Mogadishu in which 19 US troops were killed (as shown in the recent movie Black Hawk Down), and Somalia was probably used as a base for the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. Al-Qaeda also sponsored the Al-Itihaad al Islamiya (Islamic Unity) organization in Somalia, which has its own militia, and has connections to what passes for a national government in Mogadishu. And certainly, as members of Al-Qaeda flee Afghanistan, they would plan to settle in Somalia and pick up where they left off.

Throughout November and December 2001,  American ships and aircraft carried out regular reconnaissance missions off the coast of Somalia.  Elements of the German Navy were also patrolling the waters off southern Somalia. Germany, Britain and Italy declared that they would give material aid, including troops, to any US-led operations into Somalia to root out Al-Qaeda supporters. More importantly, the leadership of Somalia Rahanwein Resistance Army (RRA), which is allied with Ethiopia and opposed to the current Somali national government, met with American officers in Baidoa in December 2001. They offered troops and bases for use against Al-Qaeda, and other Somali militias in the Somali Reconciliation and Restoration Council (SRRC) may be prepared to join the fight against terrorism, either for bounties or the chance at greater power once a new government is installed in Mogadishu.

At the time of writing of this variant (early February 2002), these investigations seem to have confirmed that it’s unlikely that Al-Qaeda has much presence in Somalia now. But Somalia’s status as a “failed state”, yielding a power vacuum into which terrorist organizations could operate, the potential short-term advantages in equipment and money Al-Qaeda could offer an unscrupulous warlord, and the aggressive response any American incursion into Somalia (no matter what its purpose was) would provoke on the part of many clans make one think it could have been otherwise….

This game variant for Somalia (Schutze Games 2000) postulates that later in 2002 American forces, assisted by some clan militias, will conduct a brief military operation into the southern half of Somalia to root out hostile elements affiliated with Al-Qaeda. This will hamper the terrorists’ ability to operate in the Gulf of Aden and will lay the groundwork for an eventual strike into Iraq (see Strategy & Tactics #208).

This variant is well suited for solitaire play or with two players. The rules of the original game are altered or suspended as follows:

1.0  Introduction

The time scale of the game is several days to one week per turn. All references to the UN player should be changed to US player. The US player controls both the American (green) units and the units of any Bandit factions that are both face up and belong to a faction that is currently “friendly” to the US. There are no Government Militia units per se, all Bandit units at the start of the game are deployed with that side of the counter facing up to mask their disposition. Note: units of one Bandit faction do not all belong to the same organization, since there are dozens if not hundreds of separate clan and party militias in the country. Instead, the faction colour simply identifies them with a temporary inclination with respect to the American incursion.

2.0  Components

2.1  Map.  All Zones north of the Famine Line (from Hardiyo to Guban) are out of play. These Zones have broken off to form two new countries, the Somaliland Republic and Puntland. For simplicity I have left them out of the game.

3.0 Sequence of Play

Use this new sequence:

a) Random Events Phase – determine whether there is any change in the status of Bandit factions. See 4.0.
b) Operations Phase – players conduct operations with their units. See 6.0. At the end of the Operations Phase, the US player rolls 2d6 to see if the game ends. See 9.0.

4.0 Random Events Rules

4.1 Bandit Faction Postures. There are four Bandit factions in the game, each of which can be in one of four different postures in relation to the US incursion: friendly; neutral; neutral-hostile; and hostile. At the beginning of each turn, the US player must roll for each faction that is currently neutral or neutral-hostile and consult the Neutrality Table (see end of article) to see if its posture changes. A faction’s current posture dictates what its face-up (only) units may do in the Operations Phase. Units that are currently face-down (i.e. displaying the Government Militia side) do not do anything: they might belong to a friendly or hostile faction but take no part in the game until they are turned face-up. 

After rolling on the Neutrality Table, the US player rolls 1d6 on the US Intelligence Table (see end of article).  The column he uses on the table depends on how many face-up Bandit units he has on the map from friendly factions. The numerical result is the number of face-down Bandit units he can flip face-up on the map, or the number of units he can remove from the Bandit Off-Map Pool (or some of each, his choice up to the total). Units removed from the Off-Map pool are chosen randomly and are permanently eliminated from the game, though their elimination does not count for VP.

5.0 Logistics Rules

There are no Supply Points, Bases, or Convoys in this game. Ignore any references to them in the rules.

6.0 Operations Rules

The US player always decides who will be the next player to conduct a mission. The only mission US units may perform is Flush but the limit of one Flush per Zone per Phase is lifted. Flush missions can be performed either against all face-down units in a Zone, or against the face-up units of one neutral-hostile or hostile faction in a Zone. If Flushing face-down units, total the Contact Ratings of the US units involved and roll on the RAF Table. The numerical result is the number of face-down units that can be flipped face-up (no additional effect if the result is greater than the number of units). If Flushing face-up units, follow the regular procedure.

The US player can use friendly Bandit units to perform Raids or Ambushes on face-up Bandit units from other factions that are neutral-hostile or hostile.  Friendly Bandits may not perform joint missions with US units.

The Bandit player may perform Raids or Ambushes with face-up units of neutral-hostile or hostile factions on face-up units of friendly factions. Only units of a hostile faction can Raid or Ambush US units. 

Bandit units of any faction can move no more than one Zone per turn. Units of more than one faction cannot combine in the same Raid or Ambush. If Bandit units are firing on other Bandit units, they take the numerical result from the RAF table and turn that number of face-up enemy Bandit units in that Zone face-down. If there are fewer units than the number, there is no additional effect.

Critical Hits: If Bandit units are firing on other Bandit units and score a @ result, then the units fired upon are eliminated permanently from the game (firing player’s choice, if there is one) instead of turned face-down. If Bandit units are firing on US units (or vice versa) and score a @ result, then the Bandit player chooses one unit randomly from the Off-Map Pool (if available) and deploys it face-down in the Zone where the @ result occurred. The @ result also gives a +1 die roll modifier when checking neutrality in the next Random Events Phase.

7.0 Political Rules

There are no political rules. See 9.0 for the replacement victory conditions.

8.0  Special Rules

Do not use any of these rules except the following: 8.3 Helicopters. Engineer, Military Police and Civic Affairs units have no special role in the game. Bandit factions may freely co-exist in the same Zone.

9.0 Victory

At the end of each Operations Phase, the US player rolls 2d6. If the number rolled is less than the number of the current turn, the game ends and victory is judged. The winning side is the one with more VP at that instant. However, if the US player has eliminated all on-map units (face-up or face-down) of all factions that were hostile at the end of the game, then he wins regardless of the VP balance.

10.0 Setting up the Game

The Bandit player begins by placing all 36 Bandit units in a bowl (the Off-map Pool). He chooses 24 units at random and deploys them face-down (that is, Government Militia side up - place them without looking if you are playing solitaire) in any areas of Somalia. At least 12 units must begin in the four Zones that compose Mogadishu. All factions start as Neutral.

The US player begins by choosing any eight US units. He deploys them as he wishes in Baidoa and/or the airfield at Mogadishu. Then he rolls 1d6 and flips that number of Bandit units face-up, anywhere on the map he likes.

Hit the Beach: US Marine and helicopter units may begin the game off the Somali coast, loaded on notional ships. They may move from there to any coastal Zone without being Ambushed on ending movement, and may then perform a Flush mission. After that, they are treated as ordinary US units.

11.0 Optional Rules

Do not use any optional rules.
Neutrality Table
roll	result	die roll modifiers (cumulative)	
0, 1	friendly	-1 US currently has more VP
+1 each attack on units of that faction by US or friendly Bandit units in previous turn (no maximum)
+1 faction is already neutral-hostile
+1 @ result involving a US unit in previous turn (maximum +1)	
2			
3			
4			
5	neutral-hostile		
6+	hostile		

US Intelligence Table
(# = counters US player may flip face-up or remove from the Bandit Off-map Pool)
	number of friendly Bandit units currently face-up	
roll	0	1,2	3-5	6+	
1	-	-	-	1	
2	-	-	1	1	
3	-	1	1	2	
4	1	1	2	3	
5	1	2	3	4	
6	2	3	4	5	

Posture	Raids or Ambushes?	
Friendly	yes, Other Bandit Faction (OBF) only	
Neutral	no	
Neutral-hostile	yes, OBF only	
Hostile	yes, OBF or US	

Posture Matrix
0
	Friendly	Neutral	Neutral-hostile	Hostile	
+1
					
+2
					
+3
					
+4
					
- use the Bandit Leader counters for each faction to indicate their current posture and the DRM to apply the next time that faction rolls on the Neutrality Table.

VP Table (record as they occur)
US	Bandits	
+1  each hostile Bandit unit eliminated	+1 each hit on US unit or friendly Bandit unit eliminated	
	+1 made at least one Raid or Ambush on US unit (regardless of outcome)