Climate Change - Modelling

This page presents notes on scientific published articles related to Modelling.

Article: "Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change in the World's Oceans." The Parallel Climate Model has closely replicated observances of increases in heat content of the world's oceans. Observed ocean heat changes consistent with those predicted by the model for anthropogenic forcing. Source: Science, Volume 292, Number 5515. Date: 2001 April 13

Article: "Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming." Ninety percent probability interval for 1990-2100 warming is 1.7-4.9 degrees C, based on climate model simulators from 1765-2100, in absence of policies to limit climate change. Source: Science, Volume 293, Number 5529. Date: 2001 July 20

Article: "Evidence for Large Decadal Variability in the Tropical mean Radiative Variability in the Tropical mean Radiative Energy Budget." Large decadal variability of longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes in the tropical radiative energy budget is caused by changes in tropical mean cloudiness. Current climate models fail to predict this large observed variation. Source: Science, Volume 295, Number 5556. Date: 2002 February 1

Article: "Global Cooling After the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo: A Test of Climate Feedback by Water Vapor." Atmospheric general circulation models successfully reproduce observed drying of atmosphere after Mount Pinatubo eruption in June 1991. Atmospheric drying amplifies temperature change (cooling) due to increased aerosols in lower atmosphere. Source: Science, Volume 296, Number 5568. Date: 2002 April 26

Article: "Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing." Weakened surface winds have altered thermal structure and circulation of tropical Pacific Ocean. Climate models indicate cause is man-made. Source: Nature, Volume 441, Number 7089. Date: 2006 May 4

Article: "Subtropical Arctic Ocean temperatures during the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum." 55 million years ago was brief period of widespread, extreme climatic warming, with massive atmospheric climatic warming, with massive atmospheric greenhouse gas input. Sea surface temperatures near the North Pole increased from 18 degrees C to 23C during this event, implying an absence of ice, excluding influence of ice-albedo feedback on Arctic warming. Derived temperatures are 10 degrees C warmer than model predictions, suggesting other feedback mechanism must have been present, and are not currently incorporated in models. Source: Nature, Volume 441, Number 7093. Date: 2006 June 1

Article: "Insignificant Change in Antarctic Snowfall Since the Interglacial Geophysical Year." No statistically significant change in Antarctic snowfall since 1950s. Antarctic snowfall is not currently compensating for melting at ice sheet periphery. Climate models that predict increasing precipitation over Antarctic in conjunction with warming may need revisiting. Source: Science, Volume 313, Number 5788. Date: 2006 August 11

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