Saanich Peninsula Transportation Strategies

This article is the first of two that will describe a study, carried out for MTH, to develop alternative transportation strategies related to the Provincial Highway System that should be considered during the Capital Regional District's (CRD) process of developing a Regional Growth Strategy. It will review demographic projections based on Official Community Plan's (OCP's), current trends and the judgement of professional planners. These demographic projections will be projected to traffic volumes, transit mode split, average vehicular speed and kilometres travelled.

Part 2 (next month) will cover the strategies developed and their respective benefits and costs, both quantifiable and unquantifiable.

Background and Objectives

The CRD's 1992 Transportation Study reported very small changes in population and employment for the Saanich Peninsular, and modest changes to ferry and airport activity, so very little growth in traffic volume was forecasted. Consequently, the road system was found to be adequate for the Year 2015.

More recent increases in ferry traffic, (including pick-up and drop-off traffic), increases in population and employment occurring beyond that called for in the OCP's, and trends across Canada in airport development, suggest that there will be a greater increase in transportation demand.

The Ministry of Transportation and Highways needs were principally:

• Manage the Provincial highways (Hwy 17 and 17A) on the Peninsula during the CRD growth strategy process expected to take four to five years (from 1995). Figure 1 shows key roads in the study area.

  

• Participate in the development of a growth strategy from a basis of knowledge using reasonable strategy options that consider the entire road network, not just the provincial highways.

• To identify current deficiencies on Highway 17 affecting capacity, safety and support to the alternative modes; transit, ride- sharing and cycling,
• To develop alternative transportation strategies appropriate to the growth in travel anticipated on the Peninsula.

Two population projections were made, one based on the population forecast provided by Statistics Canada that primarily reflects current trends, and the second, referred to as a high growth forecast, was obtained through an exhaustive parcel by parcel review with municipal planners. The population projections are summarised in Table 1. The forecast increase for the 28 year period from 1992 to 2020 is small whether moderate or high growth forecasts are used (29,000 persons for high growth).

Employment Projections

Employment increases are also modest for the 28 year period (13,000). This is principally due to the expansion in jobs at the airport and in the East Saanich Indian Reserve.

Population and Employment Projections

Distribution of Growth

The distribution of population and employment increases is of principal concern in evaluating the adequacy of the existing road network to serve future needs. The distribution is primarily nodal with nodes along the existing Pat Bay Highway (Hwy 17) and in the Brentwood area (Hwy 17A) of Central Saanich. Consequently, roads linking these nodes are of most concern.

Airport Growth

Airport growth will have two sources: growth in terminal operations from greater flight frequency and aircraft capacity, and, growth from industrial development employment. Employment, both airport terminal and industrial, is anticipated to increase at a rate of 4% per year to the Year 2020.

Ferry Growth

It is likely that by 2020 all hourly trips made by ferries in the July/August peak will be by the "Spirit" class ferries. Occasionally, it can be anticipated that the smaller "Queen" ferries will provide service at half-hour intervals. Consequently, it might be assumed that capacity growth for B.C. Ferries will be a higher proportion of fuller ferries and that consequently peak traffic volumes would only increase marginally. This assumption ignores the growth in foot-passengers and the vehicles providing pick-up and drop-off (which give 2 vehicle trips per sailing). This market for B.C. Ferries has been increasing substantially and is likely to increase in the future.

Transit Growth

B.C. Transit has a strategic plan to provide more express service to the nodal centres in the Saanich Peninsula area and to B.C. Ferries. Service has been considered to the airport in the past but until employment growth is realized, it will remain infeasible. Inasmuch as the demand for transit is proportionate to the service offered, a 50% increase in planned service can be expected to result in at least a similar increase in bus passenger demand.

Year 2020 Traffic Volumes

For the Year 2020, the EMME/2 transportation model was run using the "high" growth forecasts previously described. The following discussion summarises the impacts of growth on Highways 17 and 17A.

Figure 2 shows the existing and forecasted traffic volumes for Highway 17.

Link capacity levels have been assumed using both the previous CRD assumptions and results reported for Victoria in the "Canadian Capacity Guide for Signalized Intersections", 1993. For signalized intersection alternatives a capacity of 1,000 vehicles per hour/per lane was assumed (allowing very little green time for cross traffic). For grade separated alternatives (Highway 17), a capacity of 1,600 vehicles per hour/per lane was assumed. Given ideal capacities of 2,200 vehicles per hour/per lane for freeways, 1,600 vehicles per hour/per lane is reasonable for facilities carrying large volumes of traffic unfamiliar with the road system and with large truck and recreational vehicle traffic components.

The results were as follows:

• Highway 17 already carries traffic volumes in excess of its theoretical capacity in the Sayward and Mt. Newton Road areas.
• The entire segment of Highway 17 from Haliburton to Beacon, where at-grade intersections exist, will be required to carry traffic volumes greatly in excess of its theoretical capacity by the Year 2020. Demand to capacity ratios of 1.1 to 1.5 can be expected.
• Because of the congestion on Highway 17, a substantial traffic volume is diverted to other roads such as Cordova Bay Road, Highway 17A (West Saanich Road), Lochside Drive and East Saanich Road. These roads can be expected to experience congestion by the Year 2020.

Network average speed (kph), transit mode split (percent) and vehicle kilometres travelled were determined for the road network in the Saanich Peninsula. These evaluation factors convey in the first instance a measure of mobility, in the second instance (transit use), a measure of social responsibility and vkt, an environmental factor. Table 2 provides these results. The road network in the Saanich Peninsula includes Highway 17, but it does not include Highway 1 and the Western Approaches. The vkt figure represents kilometres travelled during the p.m. peak hour.

Network Performance

Considering that most of the road system in the Saanich Peninsula is in rural and suburban areas, an average network speed of 42kph is a low figure reflecting the congestion suggested by the high demand to capacity ratios. Transit mode split is approximately what it is today. Vehicle kilometres travelled can be expected to be low because of the congestion on the road system.

Conclusion

A "No Action" Alternative for the Saanich Peninsula road network will result in an increased length of Highway 17 experiencing congestion. This will divert traffic to parallel roads that will also reach a high level of congestion. Alternative strategies need to consider the entire road network rather than a single link. In next month's newsletter alternative strategies will be described and evaluated.