The Capital Regional District is preparing a Regional Growth Strategy. The first phase of this project was to evaluate the existing Official Community Plans (OCP's) as the "base case scenario" and identify any major shortcomings that are regional in nature.

On November 21 and 22, 1997, elected officials attended a regional summit where they considered regional issues such as the Growth Rate, Housing, Transportation, Economic Development, Water Quality, Arts and Culture, Education, Social Issues, Governance, Air Quality, First Nations, Environmental and Resource Lands, and Transportation.

The summit process identified six priority areas that were regional in nature and warranted attention within the Regional Growth Strategy. These topic areas are Economic Development, Environment, Transportation, Housing, Social Issues, Governance and Managing/Balancing Growth. These topics are fully outlined in two publications by Regional Planning Services called Foundations for our Future -Vol. 4 & Vol. 5.

Regional Transportation Priorities

The result of the analysis of the OCP Option highlighted many major strengths and weakness related with the key topic areas.

One of these areas was transportation. There were strong issues raised about the lack of alternatives to the automobile but there were also discussions about the need for an efficient network of roads along with support for LRT.

The Regional Transportation Model was updated to enable consultants to assess the years 1996, 2010 and 2018 based on the existing OCP's. The evaluation results indicated that future urban development will increase the auto-dependency of this community and indicates that by 2018 there could be significant problems along the key corridors linking the Western Communities with the core. The congestion linked to the phrase "Colwood Crawl" is expected to reappear and extend through most of the urban areas that link downtown to the Western Communities.

Alternative Options

The region is focusing on the priority areas identified during the summit. A framework document is being sent to all municipalities that will shape the development of alternatives that respond to the six priority areas. Each option will have a transportation component specifically designed to respond to the planned urban form.

The initial options will be developed by involving community professionals to provide expert opinions on the tools (urban form, transportation service, policies) needed to support alternative urban settlement patterns.

From a transportation perspective there are going to be Challenges and Opportunities, a need to focus on the Vision and Goals of the Community, and several gaps in our information base.

Challenges and Opportunities:

• Reducing our dependence on the car largely hinges on finding ways to develop communities where people can meet much of their daily needs without using a car; either by walking, cycling, or taking transit. What changes do we need to make to our communities so that using a car is the transportation choice of last resort?
• Finding ways to reduce the need to make trips, by enabling people to meet more of their needs close to home, within cycling or walking distance (or through telecommunication), could help reduce automobile dependency and enhance community vitality. What measures, particularly those related to patterns of land use and density, are needed to create more complete and balanced urban settlement?
• Doubling the size of the bus fleet may be financially unrealistic, and may not result in changes in land use that would increase transit use. Can we find alternative capital funding sources, or are there other means such as TDM programs, or other modes such as light rail, that would have a greater positive effect?
• Population growth in the larger region (Georgia Basin/Puget Sound, Vancouver Island) will increase travel to and from the Capital Region. How can we plan our regional transportation system to maintain or improve inter-regional access, without detracting from our quality of life?
• To effectively address regional transportation problems requires a regional approach. What kind of regional coordination and cost accounting is required to do this?

Realizing The Vision Means:

Twin Core Region: The transportation system will serve a region with two major employment/ population centres, downtown Victoria and the Langford/Colwood town centres, and an employment centre near the airport.

Reduced Automobile Trips: Aggressive transit investment and minimum roadway construction, combined with policies to encourage cycling and walking aim to reduce the private car's share of trips.

Foot and Cycle Path Network: A transportation system is envisaged with a region-wide network of foot and cycle paths as an integral part.

Base Case Information:

• Minimal New Road Construction: Currently a "do minimum" number of new roads and road improvements are proposed for the regional road network.
• Bus Based Public Transit System: Standard buses are currently proposed as the only public transit mode.
• Traffic to grow at same rate as population: Traffic will grow at about the same rate as population (approximately 28% in the PM peak hour by 2018), with the greatest change expected in the Western Communities, where most new growth is expected to take place.
• Bottlenecks: Currently planned roadway improvements will not provide enough capacity either within the Western Communities, or between the Western Communities and downtown Victoria.
• Congestion to increase: The length of roadway with noticeable traffic congestion is forecast to increase from 15.6 km to more than 50 km (about 250%), while the length of roadway with serious traffic congestion and complete stoppages is forecast to increase from 0.6 km to 15.2 km (more than 2,400%) between 1996 and 2018.
• Overall speed reduced: Overall speed reductions of 10% are expected on both Provincial highways and local roads, especially in the Western Communities, Victoria and Saanich (e.g.: Langford - from 43 km/h in 1996 to 31 km/hr in 2018; Victoria - from 34 km/hr in 1996 to 30 km/hr in 2018).
• Massive investment to maintain transit trip share: To maintain public transit's current share of peak hour travel, the existing bus fleet would have to double, and transit use would have to increase by 60% by 2018.

Information Gaps:

Currently, we do not know:

• If access management policies for roadways of regional significance are needed to help assure mobility between jurisdictions.
• If transportation demand management programs and other actions are needed to encourage the reduction of automobile trips region wide.
• If we can afford the major increases in bus transit funding required to maintain transit's share of peak hour travel.
• To what extent strategies to increase urban densities and encourage transit oriented development can reduce automobile dependency.
• How we would need to change land use densities and uses to support light rail rapid transit as an alternative public transit mode.
• If Transportation Demand Management (TDM), including a number of different price-based and other mechanisms, are needed to decrease demand for automobile based transport and to encourage demand for other modes.

In summary, the CRD has many challenges related to identifying any option that addresses all the outstanding issues related to future urban growth in this region. Our first focus will be short listing some viable alternatives for the future and getting community support prior to undertaking a full impact analysis of any option. Later this year, the CRD will fully evaluate each short listed option and report to the Board.